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The Millennial Files

A Source for Important Global Issues, Trends and Events

More Hurricanes Predicted

September 9th, 2005
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Washington (AP) The NOAA on Tuesday sharply boosted its forecast for hurricanes this season, predicting 19-21 tropical storms by the end of November. That’s up from a forecast in May of 12 to 15 tropical storms, seven to nine of them becoming hurricanes. There have already been seven named storms this year, two of them hurricanes.

That means the remainder of the year could see 11 to 14 more storms, including seven to nine more hurricanes, Weather Service Director David L. Johnson said at a briefing. Hurricane forecaster Gerry Bell said the combination of warmer waters, low wind shear and low pressure, as well as the jet stream, favor storm formation.

Hurricanes derive their energy from warm water, and with the sea surface being two to three degrees warmer than normal for this time of year, there could be a substantial increase in their force as well as number.

Weather Service officials urged preparedness on the part of people living in hurricane-prone areas. Bell said hurricanes have increased since 1995. He said there is a cycle between more and less active hurricane seasons which lasts for decades. The nation’s coastlines had major population increases during the decades with low storm activity before 1995, he noted. A new analysis by Kerry Emmanuel at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology suggests global warming is making tropical storms stronger.
However, that report did not suggest it is generating more storms and Bell said it isn’t possible to determine such an effect because the cycles of more and fewer storms are so strong. (Randolph Schmid, AP, 8/2/05).




One Response to “More Hurricanes Predicted”

  1. Bill the red Says:
    July 28th, 2008 at 3:35 pm

    hey… anybody ever keep track on what happened with this prediction?

    how’s the ice cap doing in 2008?

    did you see the article where 90,000 years ago the human race was reduced to a handful of survivors at the southern tip of africa, while the rest of the globe was locked in ice?

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